I originally started a blog to keep people posted on my travels. Traveling is interesting and it’s a way to keep everyone updated at the same time. But let’s face it, my life just isn’t as interesting when I’m not traveling, so I stopped pretty quickly after returning home. However, after several requests for me to keep posting on my blog, tonight, after an interesting evening, I decided I could try for a little while to get back into it.
So tonight, my brother and I are watching a Sunday night movie, a pretty regular tradition for him and me. We are watching are a good, intense one and are quite into it when my sister, who bless her heart has probably never watched the news nor read a newspaper a day in her life, comes out and announces that bin Laden is dead. “What? Where did you hear that?” I ask. “On facebook,” she replies. Fun implication number one: even the avid current events follower can sometimes hear news from facebook before the news. My sister’s word of mouth from her checking facebook statuses updated me before the breaking news app on my phone did. This also briefly reminded me of how strong and fast the word of mouth can spread (as this was the number one way news spread in Dharamsala, much faster than newspapers or fliers).
But beyond the implications of social media and current events, the next few days and weeks will prove to bring about some interesting new implications. Now, I want to start with the disclaimer that I am not one to try and predict what will happen, and in this particular case, I doubt many others will attempt to make predictions either. All of this could go so many different directions… But I do want to mention just a few (and a very few) of the possible implications it could have.
First, if he really was found not too far from Islamabad, Pakistan (capital), this will probably add even more tension to the already deteriorating relations between the US and Pakistan. For those of you who don’t know much about US-Pakistani relations, lots of recent events have added to the tension, particularly the growing number of civilian deaths by drone attacks (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-13167425; http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-13179763), the trial of a CIA worker for killing two Pakistanis (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-12729849), which culminated in Pakistan asking the US to minimize its CIA numbers and influence in Pakistan (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-13046012). Finding him so close to the capital, will no doubt have tension-filled implications.
Second, what does this mean to the military and intelligence efforts in Afghanistan? We entered Afghanistan in October 2001, shortly after September 11th. While various reasons were listed, one of the reasons that President Bush gave at the time was for “justice” for what had been done on September 11th. If the admitted head and creator of the attacks is now dead, we may find out just how much that justice means to the US and just how much a part of that was the real motivation for going into Afghanistan. I’m not saying we’ll pull out or anything as drastic as that, but we may discover more about the nation’s motivations for being in Afghanistan. Are we more about “bringing justice” for September 11th? About getting rid or terrorism and al-Qaeda? And what about the Taliban and their role? Or do our efforts about for stabilizing Afghanistan have anything to do with it? Or is it more about attempting to get rid of terrorism as a whole, not just bin Laden? Or pieces of all of the above? I’m not predicting or claiming one or the other. But I think this event may reveal more about these issues.
And the third thing, at least for this evening and at this moment in my head, is what it means to his followers. Was bin Laden really an effective terrorist leader? Was he inspiring thousands? And will the numbers dwindle now without his efforts? Or what about his current followers? Will they lose hope and drop some of their efforts? Or will it only further enrage them, make them want revenge for his death? Many experts have talked about how one of the major characteristics of this kind of terrorism (and in particular al-Qaeda’s movement) is that it is essentially without a center, a main head, so it can spread and have many small acts by individuals that are not linked to the center. Will his death change much in the overall al-Qaeda movement? Many, many more questions can be asked. And most have no current answers.
But I suppose this is what makes life, the world, and particularly current events so interesting. Human behavior and the chain of events that can spread from one event, are far too complicated for predictions. This is particularly the case when it comes from the ideas of a young mind still grasping to understand the world. But even with my little knowledge, I know that these events, if they unfold to be as true as these initial reports are telling us, will surely affect the way certain events unfold for quite some time.


